Sudan: Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst?
This report aims to stimulate critical thinking and open discussion on potential developments in Sudan that may emerge with the conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which is due to end in July 2011.
Section 1 suggests that the CPA is at present most likely to result in a secession of Southern from Northern Sudan based on agreement between the parties. If this is the outcome of the CPA process, this report articulates the need for a clear vision for next steps that can be taken up with energy by the respective governments, civil society, aid agencies and the international community thereafter. At the same time, a number of more dangerous developments cannot by any means be ruled out. Therefore this report advocates that the CPA parties, their international partners, as well as the missions and agencies they support, all need to be ready to respond well to all of the possible developments that the coming months and years may bring.
The developments and recommendations presented in Section 1 of this report are based on the analysis of conflict dynamics in Sudan that is presented in Section 2. This analysis recaps on important conflict dynamics that need to be considered by those working towards peace, good governance and development in Southern and Northern Sudan in the coming months and years.
This report was based on a review of literature, a series of interviews with local, national and international stakeholders, and discussions with community members in Central Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria and Southern Kordofan states in Sudan in December 2010. It is prepared within the framework of a project which aims to provide European Union institutions with analysis and recommendations based on the opinions and experiences of local people in a range of countries and regions affected by fragility and violent conflict. The report is preliminary and will be followed in 2011 by more detailed and participatory analysis of the dynamics identified.
Date: December 2010
Author: Larry Attree
Country: Sudan, South Sudan