Climate change and conflict: Working paper
A framework for analysis and action
Summary
In many places, climate change doesn’t just threaten people’s way of life, it threatens their security.
A growing body of research highlights the linkages between climate change and conflict, but what to do about it is not straightforward. So far, no simple analytical framework is available that can accommodate the complexity and variability of the modelling or provide clear direction for policy and programming.
This Working Paper presents a framework for analysis that may go some way towards meeting this need, and discusses how it can be used as a basis for action. It does not cover all dimensions of the relationship between climate change and conflict, but focuses upon how it plays out a local level and what this means for policy and programming.
The framework is based upon Saferworld’s research into this dynamic in Bangladesh and Kenya, while also drawing upon other studies on the issue. It is intended to provide practical guidance for policy-makers and programmers, and to contribute to the wider debate about the conflict and security risks of climate change. Like work on climate change and conflict more generally, the proposed framework remains a work in progress, so we welcome feedback from readers of this paper.
