Tracker survey reveals rising tensions in Western Balkans
27 April 2012New survey data shows that more people in Kosovo believe violent conflict is likely or very likely than did so a year earlier. Astrit Istrefi highlights key findings from the latest tracker survey and recommends steps for Kosovo, Serbia and the European Union to avoid renewed violent conflict
In some ways the past year has seen continued progress in Kosovo, with new legislation developed and adopted to strengthen the rule of law, including a new criminal code and an anti-corruption council, as well as talks on closer EU ties. However, over this time Kosovo has also been facing some of the biggest challenges since the war ended in 1999. Public support for its government has declined, EU-facilitated talks between Kosovo and Serbia have broken down, and there have been violent clashes in the north.
In light of all these events, the deterioration in public perceptions of security shown in Saferworld’s latest tracker survey is perhaps no surprise, but it highlights the need for renewed efforts by all parties to avoid an escalation into violence. The data, gathered in December 2011, shows that the issues most likely to cause future conflict relate to problems in the North of Kosovo and unemployment – as well as trust in the EULEX rule of law mission in Kosovo, the Kosovo government and its institutions.
There is strong antagonism, even among Kosovo Serbs, towards the possibility of any form of special status for the north of Kosovo, with 54.9% of respondents saying this would make the security situation worse. Expectations of progress from the EU-sponsored dialogue have also gone down – with only 17.9% of people expecting their security to improve compared with more than double that a year earlier. The proportion of those expecting security to worsen also more than doubled from 7.3% to 18%.
Alongside these lowered expectations is growing negativity around the EULEX mission, with only 27.2% of respondents feeling that EULEX should stay in Kosovo compared to 42.4% in 2010. There is a similar loss of trust in wider government and judicial institutions with over half of respondents (53.8%) only trusting the government ‘a little’ or ‘not at all’ (up from 22.8% in 2009) and similar figures for the judiciary. A key problem is that although measures are being taken and laws enacted, people feel that they are seeing few positive results on the ground. For example, corruption is still perceived as being endemic among the police, judiciary and customs officials.
Recent inflammatory rhetoric from Belgrade, arrests of Kosovo citizens and police by Serbia in border regions, and strained relations between communities in Macedonia over cases of violence and intimidation of Albanians in Macedonia, have only escalated tensions and undermined public perceptions of security further in recent weeks.
The EU, and governments in Kosovo and Serbia, need to take urgent action to avoid any further escalation towards violence. For the EU this means using the leverage it has and making it clear that EU accession is conditional on improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo. It also needs to develop a better public communications strategy to explain the role and potential of the dialogue process to support sustainable peace, and the mandate and objectives of EULEX. This would help to build trust in the processes and institutions.
Serbian political parties and government representatives need to refrain from using Ethno-nationalist rhetoric and inflammatory statements, which have been fuelling tensions. They would be better to take a long-term approach to Kosovo instead of working for short-term political gain. The elections in May in Serbia could be an opportunity to promote the country’s recent achievements and progress on EU accession, but there should not be any support from political parties and leaders for Serbian-run local elections in Kosovo, which will only aggravate tensions and increase violence.
The Government of Kosovo needs to play its part by starting dialogue with Kosovo Serbs living in the north of Kosovo about ways to reduce tensions and build the local economy and rule of law. It also needs to address the lack of trust people have in government institutions, the judiciary, police and customs, and provide more information to the public about the purpose, outcomes and likely impact of the EU-facilitated talks with Serbia.
Overall, the results of Saferworld’s Kosovo tracker survey reveal a worrying trend towards greater conflict in the region. The key actors in Brussels, Belgrade and Pristina need to take urgent action, particularly in advance of May’s elections in Serbia to minimise the potential for renewed violence in Kosovo.
Astrit Istrefi is Saferworld’s Team Leader for Europe and Central Asia.
“Overall, the results of Saferworld’s Kosovo tracker survey reveal a worrying trend towards greater conflict in the region”
Astrit Istrefi, Saferworld
