Comment & analysis

Towards conflict-sensitive adaptation in Nepal

16 August 2011 Ivan Campbell

Nepal's vulnerability to climate change is increasing. In response to this Saferworld initiated a six month project to help make the Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) conflict sensitive. The aim was to ensure that the LAPA and related interventions are designed in a way that minimises negative impacts on the local conflict and security context and optimises their potential to contribute to peace and stability. Here, Ivan Campbell, a senior advisor at Saferworld, talks to Stefanie Schaefter of the Environment, Conflict and Cooperation Platform about the project.


ECC: Ivan, from your perspective: what is the most difficult challenge communities face in Nepal in an age of climate change?

Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change is well known, with temperature increasing at a consistently high rate since the mid-1970s. This has caused an estimated two-thirds of glaciers to retreat, while many glacial lakes are at risk of bursting their natural dams. Nepal has also experienced more intense monsoons and dry seasons in recent years. These changes are affecting communities most immediately through flooding and drought. Frequent flooding in recent years has led to loss of productive agricultural land, destroyed crops, damaged houses and infrastructure, and loss of life. Droughts have resulted in declining crop productivity and the drying of water sources (wells, ponds, and springs). The consequences for communities in Nepal include reduced food security, reduced access to water resources, and increased vulnerability of marginalised and poor people.

 

ECC: Is it, in your view, possible that climate change can contribute to an outbreak of violent conflict?

There is rarely a direct correlation between climate change and violent conflict, but the consequences of climate change – such as those identified above – may well interact with existing features of the context in a way that increases the risk of conflict. In other words, climate change has a threat-multiplying effect, and could potentially trigger violence. In the case of Nepal, although the war is over, there remain significant underlying drivers of conflict. In many communities daily life is characterised by poverty, entrenched inequalities, negligible state support and a sense of insecurity. Given these conditions, the additional stresses brought about by climate change may have a strong threat-multiplying effect. Climate change induced conflict would significantly undermine peace and stability in Nepal, as well as weaken the capacities of the Nepali state and people to adapt to climate change in the future.

 

ECC: How do you address these challenges, and what is, in a nutshell, the main difference of the "Saferworld approach" to other adaptation activities in this region?

In recent years, Saferworld has examined how the relationship between climate change and conflict plays out in local communities. We have conducted field research in Bangladesh and Kenya, leading to recommendations for national and local actors to mitigate the risks of climate change induced conflict. We subsequently compared the findings of these studies and - despite the very different contexts – identified a common pattern regarding that combination of factors most likely to lead to insecurity and violence at the community level. Building on this, we formulated a framework for analysing, and responding to, the relationship between climate change and conflict. Saferworld’s approach is distinguished by two characteristics:

1) While recognising the importance of analysis and action at higher levels, we have focused on the community level, both in terms of understanding the issue and identifying opportunities for action.

2) Recognising the risk of getting bogged down in debates about the nature of the relationship between climate change and conflict, we have tried to develop models that accommodate the complexity and variability of the issue, and that support practical responses - since in those regions most vulnerable to climate change, this is not a matter of academic debate but of urgent practical consequence.

 

ECC: Ivan, can you please describe how you address the need to adapt to changing climate conditions in Nepal?

In Nepal the process of developing a national adaptation programme is well underway, so the window of opportunity to incorporate a conflict perspective is narrowing. In 2010, following consultations with stakeholders, Saferworld initiated a project to help make adaptation measures more conflict-sensitive, with a focus upon Nepal’s Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA). Core groups of local stakeholders were identified in four districts where the LAPA was being piloted, including CBO representatives and local authorities. Over the course of six months, and three shared learning workshops, Saferworld worked with these groups to develop participatory analyses of the local context. These focused upon conflict issues and dynamics, as well as climate change impacts, and how these factors interact. The process strengthened participants’ capacities to analyse the local context and raised awareness of the relationship between climate change and conflict. Participants explored how adaptation interventions may have negative or positive impacts upon the conflict situation, and the need therefore for conflict-sensitive approaches. Lessons learnt from the project will inform local adaptation planning in Nepal.

 

ECC: Thank you very much for this interview.

 

Read the original version of this interview on the ECC website

“The consequences of climate change for communities in Nepal include reduced food security, reduced access to water resources, and increased vulnerability of marginalised and poor people”

Ivan Campbell, Saferworld