Shifting geopolitics and conflict management in Central Asia

A roundtable in September organised by Saferworld and partners at Chatham House brought together leading experts on Central Asia, Russia and China to debate the many facets of conflict management in this resource-rich region which sits at the intersection of shifting geo-politics.

Increasing international attention is focused on Central Asia, and there’s growing concern about the risk of conflicts and spreading instability. In part this is prompted by the presence of armed Islamist groups and the prospect of US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014; in part by concerns about ethnic sectarianism, rising nationalism and succession politics in Central Asian states. But the region is also rich in energy resources and the site of competition between Russia, China, the US and other regional powers. This combination of internal dynamics and shifting geo-politics presents policy-makers – in Beijing and Moscow as well as in Western capitals - with a complex challenge.

Saferworld, in collaboration with the Universities of Exeter and Newcastle, aims to support conflict prevention efforts in Central Asia by informing policy debates and outcomes. Through research into past responses to conflicts in the region, and analysis of the evolving policy discourse of conflict management in China, Russia and in the West, we seek to deepen understanding of the current context and of future conflict dynamics. The research findings will provide an evidence-base to engage with academic and policy communities in China, Russia and in Western capitals.

On 10 September, Saferworld and project partners held a roundtable at Chatham House to introduce the project to a range of leading figures in the field. This included Central Asian experts, senior policy officials and representatives of Chinese and Russian think tanks. Seminar sessions explored the roles and interests of China, Russia, India and Turkey in Central Asia; international responses to conflict in Kyrgyzstan in 2010; alternative non-liberal approaches to conflict management; and the challenge of translating research findings into actionable and policy-oriented outputs. Seminar participants provided valuable insights and perspectives that will inform and enhance project implementation. Over the course of the next 12 months, project partners will undertake field-research on these issues in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and China.

"By looking at conflict management in Central Asia through different lenses this project will build a composite picture of current dynamics, which can inform future efforts to prevent conflict in the region”, said Ivan Campbell, Senior Policy Advisor at Saferworld.

Saferworld has been working in Central Asia since 2009, focusing on the border areas between the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan and other parts of the Ferghana Valley. We support cooperation between communities, authorities and the police in responding to human security concerns, promote peaceful coexistence in conflict-affected areas, and encourage national and international actors to adopt a conflict-sensitive approach.

Read more about our work on Rising Powers.

Read more about Saferworld's work in Central Asia

Chatham House event link.

“By looking at conflict management in Central Asia through different lenses this project will build a composite picture of current dynamics, which can inform future efforts to prevent conflict in the region”

Ivan Campbell