The eve of elections

On the eve of Presidential elections in Uganda, Saferworld’s David Othieno and David Otim offer a view from Kampala.

“Whenever there are elections they tear gas us and arrest us, so how can we be expected to have a fair competition?” - parliamentary candidate

"Say no to election violence": participants in Saferworld's peace campaign in Moroto district call for peace during Uganda's elections.

Amid increasingly provocative rhetoric from senior political figures on both governmental and opposition sides, running battles between opposition supporters and the Ugandan police erupted on the streets of Kampala this week. Several deaths and multiple injuries have been reported and accusations of political bias, recklessness and heavy-handedness abound.

Ugandans have expressed outrage over statements from regime candidates that protests will be met with lethal force, while opposition candidates have expressed fear that the elections will not be free and fair. Some are taking to social media to vent their displeasure both at the violence and also the risks that political unrest and instability pose for Uganda.

Uganda’s elections have been heavily commercialised. During two months of campaigning, the ruling NRM party is reported to have spent 27 billion shillings (about 8 million US Dollars) and opposition parties are also reported to have spent large amounts of money. There is also some evidence that significant amounts of election campaign funds have been distributed directly to potential voters. This spending is fuelling damaging inflation and a growing concern over the potential for violent social unrest in the coming weeks and months. At a local level, election campaigning has had an effect on everyday economic activity. For example, during the violence on 15 February 2016 shops in Kampala remained closed with traders fearing vandalism and it has been reported that many youths have relinquished their routine economic activities to follow and campaign for politicians. Maintaining stability will be crucial for sustaining domestic economic activity as well as consumer and investor confidence.

Angry supporters at Makerere University set ablaze posters of President Museveni

The international community has certainly taken an interest, although the impact it has had is perhaps questionable. For the past few weeks stories on Uganda have been highlighted and discussed in the international media and various missions have been actively promoting peaceful campaigning and supporting calls for free and fair elections. The UN Development Programme supported the two presidential debates and the US mission, the EU, and the Democratic Governance Facility (DGF)-a basket fund of eight donors - and other foreign missions have all engaged in useful ways.

However, there is a concern especially from the opposition that the international community hasn’t done enough to condemn the unfair processes and partisan nature of the Uganda police, electoral commission and other institutions mandated to manage elections. Despite raising procedural issues around registration and expressing concern over public order policing and politically-motivated arrests, there is a perception that they have remained largely silent on the excessive preferential treatment afforded the ruling NRM party candidates and could have done more to caution against threats of violence from politicians.

It is evident that the general population has been more active during this election period compared to previous elections. We Ugandans expect a greater turnout on 18 February (and other election dates) than last time which signifies a welcome reduction in voter apathy but places greater pressure on those tasked with managing the electoral process. In an ideal Uganda, the electoral commission, police and military would all play an active and non-partisan role in ensuring the elections are free and fair and that people feel safe and secure when exercising their democratic right to vote.

In a context where more than five million mainly young ‘crime preventers’ have been mobilised by the government in what’s being seen as a significant militarisation of the population and electoral violence rumbles on through the streets of Kampala and elsewhere, we will need to be vigilant and optimistic as the dust settles and we look to build a peaceful, democratic and stable Uganda.

David Othieno Opoya is Saferworld’s Regional Funding Coordinator for the Great Lakes and South Sudan. David Otim is Project Adviser for Saferworld’s Uganda programme.

“We will need to be vigilant and optimistic as the dust settles and we look to build a peaceful, democratic and stable Uganda”

David Othieno Apoyo and David Otim, Safeworld