Yemen’s National Dialogue: the need for a contingency plan

As Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference comes to a close, says Saleem Haddad, a growing number of Yemenis are questioning whether the process will actually lead to a historic renegotiation of power.

The six-month National Dialogue Conference (NDC) in Yemen has acted as a mechanism for public consultation and reconciliation since Ali Abdullah Saleh’s cession of power in February 2012. Against a backdrop of continued military operations, the conference has provided Yemenis with a framework for the negotiation of a new social contract between citizens and state. A range of actors are contributing to the process – from the government and main opposition party to representatives from women and youth groups and those involved in secessionist movements.

However, prospects of the NDC’s success are complicated by two major considerations: firstly, unrealistic expectations and incompatible demands from the diverse range of constituents; and secondly, the agendas and strategies of political actors both inside and outside the country. In addition, there are various challenges facing Yemen – from economic development and increasing government transparency to state restructuring and the southern issue. In particular, the deep divisions between north and south, and within the south itself, have made progress on territorial issues and the structure of the state near impossible.

International sponsors of this process remain unwilling to consider the possibility that the NDC could fail, but there are fears that Yemen’s political actors have already begun their own contingency planning. Some sources suggest that key political factions remain armed and appear to be amassing more weapons – increasing the possibility of further violence and instability.

It is clear that an increasing number of Yemenis are questioning whether the NDC is in fact the framework within which a historic renegotiation of power and political access can take place, or whether it is merely a superficial process designed to act as a pressure valve to prevent further unrest while more powerful actors, including the US and Saudi Arabia, negotiate behind the scenes. The reality is that the NDC can, at best, be the start of an ongoing process, not a solution in itself.

The hope is that the dialogue will spur productive political competition. However, it is essential that local and international stakeholders manage expectations around what the NDC can achieve and begin to address wider elements of the transition process, including the country’s dire economic and humanitarian situation and the need for basic services, including the establishment of law and order. One thing is clear, the failure of the NDC would look like a return to civil war and the fragmentation of the country.

Saleem Haddad is Saferworld’s regional adviser for the Middle East and North Africa. This article is based on a longer briefing note which you can read here.

Read more about Saferworld's work in Yemen.

“It is essential that local and international stakeholders manage expectations around what the NDC can achieve”

Saleem Haddad