Early warning, early response?
Learning lessons from the 2010 crisis in Kyrgyzstan
This report is one of eight case studies developed under the Initiative for Peacebuilding – Early Warning project. It looks at the way conflict early warning, as well as other conflict-related information and analysis, was taken into account, processed and acted upon by EU actors in Kyrgyzstan during the crisis which broke out in 2010.
The report draws on research and interviews conducted throughout 2011 in Kyrgyzstan and Brussels with several EU staff, as well as with key informants from the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, non-governmental organisations, and local civil society organisations. It makes a series of recommendations for how the EU and other actors can improve its approach to early warning in Kyrgyzstan.
The second purpose of the report is to identify the other local, national and international actors involved in conflict analysis, early warning and peacebuilding activities in Kyrgyzstan, the kind of challenges they face and how they are trying to overcome them.
The report highlights a people-centred early warning-early response model that empowers conflict-affected communities to identify their main security threats and to respond to them in a constructive and peaceful way.
“The EU is proficient in assessing broad level dynamics, such as the economic, social, political, and security situation in a country. However, the Kyrgyzstan case study shows that the EU has a less systematic way of dealing with weak signals and local level dynamics, which are both the consequences and the drivers of tensions threatening state stability and social cohesion.”Early warning, early response? Learning lessons from the 2010 crisis in Kyrgyzstan