Conflict sensitive approaches to local climate change adaptation in Nepal

Since 2008 Saferworld has been investigating the relationship between climate change and conflict in local communities, with the purpose of developing approaches that can mitigate the conflict risks that may arise from accelerating changes in climate.

It is the interaction between the natural consequences of climate change (such as extreme weather, floods, droughts, and natural disasters) and the social, political, and economic realities in which people live that will determine the risk of conflict. In fragile and conflict-prone states, as climate change interacts with other factors – such as poverty, weak governance, political marginalisation, and corruption – there is a higher risk of conflict. And the risks will be highest in those countries that combine high levels of vulnerability to climate change with state fragility and propensity to conflict.

Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change is well known, with the temperature increasing at a consistently high rate since the mid-1970s. Consequences include glaciers retreating and at the same time glacial lakes at risk of bursting their natural dams. Nepal has also experienced more intense monsoons and dry seasons in recent years, affecting communities through flooding and drought. Frequent flooding in recent years has led to loss of productive agricultural land, destroyed crops, damaged houses and infrastructure, and loss of life. Droughts have resulted in declining crop productivity and the drying of water sources. The consequences for communities in Nepal include reduced food security, reduced access to water resources, and increased vulnerability of marginalised and poor people.

These factors could lead to conflict, which in turn may compound the initial problems. Therefore it is important to incorporate a conflict perspective into climate change modelling in Nepal, and to ensure that responses to climate change are informed by an understanding of conflict issues.